ERST LESEN! » chiefStats: Five stats that could determine the Chiefs’

game against Steelers Welcome to the second installment of chiefStats Xavier Williams Jersey , where we cover five stats to watch regarding the upcoming Kansas City Chiefs game. This week we’re tackling stats surrounding the upcoming game between the Chiefs and the Steelers.1. Steelers’ weakness?After watching the Chiefs drop 38 points on what should be an above-average Los Angeles Chargers defense in the opening week, it is starting to look more and more like we were right about the Chiefs.What were we right about specifically? Well, it could be the Chiefs will finish the year with a top-five offense. In fact, after watching the game against the Chargers, I’d say the safe bet is on the Chiefs finishing the season with a top five points per game offense.Which made me wonder, how have the Steelers done against teams with top five points per game offenses in the past?So the Steelers have gone 1-6 against teams who finished the season with a top five points per game offense since 2015.For comparison, the Steelers are 33-7 during that same time period against all other teams. Let’s take a deeper look at the games:2015 @ Patriots - L (21-28)2015 vs Cardinals - W (25-13)2015 @ Seahawks - L (30-39)2016 vs Patriots - L (16-27)2016 vs Cowboys - L (30-35)2017 vs Jaguars - L (9-30)2017 vs Patriots - L (24-27)For starters, I know all you haters out there are going to say, “OK, Gary, that’s three games against the Patriots... they don’t count because they’re the Patriots.”And I get your sentiment, I do. But after the Chiefs’ success against the Patriots during Reid’s era, I don’t think it’s fair to just assume the Patriots can play the Steelers better than the Chiefs can.I think the Chiefs’ issues with the Steelers were due to another reason that we’ll discuss later in the article.Regardless, the Steelers have given up an average of 30 points per game against top five offensive teams. The Steelers have also given up an average QB rating of 108.1 against the same offenses.If you go back over the years, the Steelers have beaten the Chiefs in a grueling ground-and-pound style where they control the clock.It’s awfully hard to ground and pound against great offenses. If the Chiefs start putting points on the board on Sunday, the Steelers will be forced to leave their comfort zone. I like the Chiefs’ chances if they turn the game into a shootout in Pittsburgh.2. Wake (the Steelers) up when September endsBonus points to those of you who got the Green Day reference.Anyway, the Steelers have a history of starting slow. I went back through each of Ben Roethlisberger’s starts for the Steelers in September and was able to find the following:I guess if you’re going to face the Steelers, you’re better off seeing them in September than later in the year.3. What in the Bell is going on?!Troy Taormina-USA TODAY SportsWe’ve all probably heard about Le’Veon Bell choosing not to sign his franchise tender and play with the Steelers so far in 2018. The question is, how much does that hurt the Steelers?Over the course of Bell’s career, he has missed 20 games. In those 20 games the Steelers are 12-7-1 (excuse me while I laugh about the Steelers’ tie with the Browns last week). That record equates to a 0.600 win percentage.With Bell playing, the Steelers are 42-20 with a 0.677 win percentage. So you can see the Steelers fare slightly worse whenever Bell is unable (or unwilling) to play.In games in which Bell is present, the Steelers average 5.0 yards per carry against the Chiefs. In Bell’s career, he averages 135.4 yards per game against the Chiefs (including playoffs.) When you exclude playoffs, Bell averages 126.8 yards per game against the Chiefs.With a minimum of four starts, Bell averages the most yards against the Chiefs Jordan Lucas Jersey , and it’s not even close.The next closest team is the Browns, who give up an average of 89.8 yards per game to Bell.Needless to say, not having Bell is a good thing for the Chiefs.However, James Conner ran for 135 yards on 31 attempts last Sunday against the Browns. I believe Conner isn’t at the same level of talent as Bell. At the same time, PFF graded Conner as an above-average running back after the first game of the year.At this point in time, I’m calling Bell’s absence an important part of this game, but the Chiefs will need to respect Conner.4. Time keeps on slippin’The last two times the Chiefs played the Steelers, Pittsburgh dominated time of possession.In Week 6 of 2017, the Steelers allowed the Chiefs to possess the ball for only 23 minutes and 21 seconds.In the divisional round game in 2016, the Chiefs held onto the ball for 25 minutes and 47 seconds.The Steelers were able to do this because they ran the ball over, and over, and over, and over again. In the 2017 game, the Steelers had 37 rush attempts, and in the 2016 divisional playoff game, the Steelers ran the ball 34 times.If the Steelers are looking to contain Patrick Mahomes, they are going to try and have success running the football. Over the years, the Steelers’ strategy against the Chiefs has been something along the following:Play tight zone defense (more on that later)Stop the run on defenseRun the ball on offenseWork the clockThis is why it’s so important for the Chiefs to come out firing against the Steelers and not stop shooting until the last second of the game is finished. The Chiefs can disrupt the Steelers game plan if they put points on the board quickly.5. Zoning outThrough the years, the Steelers have established themselves as having a zone-heavy defensive scheme.As you can see, the Steelers ran 70.1 percent of their defensive snaps in zone defense. This brings me to Mahomes:In this play, Mahomes zips the ball through a tight window of two or three Chargers defenders. This is exactly the type of throw which is needed to beat zone defenses.If Mahomes plays like this, the Steelers defense will have a very difficult time stopping Mahomes from absolutely picking apart their defense. Of course, I don’t know for sure what will happen, but that won’t stop me from running this little experiment:Check back late Sunday.In a world Eric Berry can’t go, there’s a plan at safety Eric Berry’s heel weighs heavily on the minds of Kansas City Chiefs fans this week.It’s not just that Berry — when he has been on the field — is a next-level contributor to defensive coordinator Bob Sutton’s defense.It’s that when Berry has been absent from the field Damien Williams Jersey , the Chiefs defense has been measurably less effective — as Craig Stout noted in his outstanding article about how the Chiefs value versatility in their defensive safeties:So as the season opener looms — and concerns about the defensive secondary linger after the veritable tornado of moves the Chiefs made at positions including cornerback and safety around last weekend’s roster cutdown — it’s completely understandable that a humble writer like myself might compose Tuesday’s Chiefs Haiku:You’re not seeing the daily Chiefs Haiku?That’s just one of the reasons you should follow me on Twitter.Others include my effervescent personality — not to mention my daily drawing, in which a lucky Twitter follower is chosen to help a Nigerian prince recover millions of dollars from a US bank account.But I digress.So it came to pass that Wednesday’s press appearances at Arrowhead included lots of inquiries about Eric Berry’s readiness to play — not only this Sunday, but also in the weeks to come.As our in-house medical expert Aaron Borgman noted in his rundown of Chiefs sports medicine VP Rick Burkholder’s turn before the cameras, there was no real news about Berry; he is still day-to-day with soreness in his heel.(For the umpteenth time, we remind you that this is not the same foot in which he had the Achilles injury in Week 1 of 2017).Head coach Andy Reid also drove this point home.“We’ve kept great communication with [Berry],” Reid said. “He’s letting us know he’s improving — which is the most important thing — and he’s done a great deal of work today. Let’s see how it goes. We’ve done that to this point, and will continue to do it. If he’s ready, he’s ready. If he’s not, then we go a different direction and roll with that.”To be clear, both Burkholder and Reid emphasized that the work Berry is doing isn’t on the practice field, but with the Chiefs training and medical staff, where Burkholder said Berry is improving every day.Reid said that the final decision on whether Berry would play on Sunday would be up to him.“We’ll see if he can practice, and go from there,” Reid explained. “I want to see what he’s got — if and when he does that. I’ll make the decision from what I see there.”This would suggest that a decision made this week might have to be made before the Chiefs decamp to Los Angeles for their game against the Chargers.But as tight end Travis Kelce noted on Wednesday, we should probably still expect Berry to make the trip — whether he is going to play or not.“I have all the faith in the world in what coach Sutton and everyone is doing over on that side of the ball,” Kelce said. “They’ve got great leadership over there. Even if Eric isn’t ready to play — or not able to play — he’s still out there being a coach, and making sure the guys are ready to go.”So this begs the question: if Berry is unable to play this weekend — or after — how will the Chiefs deal with it?Last season, Daniel Sorensen was listed as Berry’s backup, and stepped in alongside Ron Parker — who has just returned to the Chiefs after being cut in a cap-saving move in February.But Sorensen is also unavailable due to an injury, and since he is now on injured reserve, cannot return until after Week 8 — even though Burkholder said on Wednesday that he might be ready to play before then.This would seem to ensure that Parker would start if Berry doesn’t go.But Reid said that Parker might start even if Berry is ready to go, saying, ”there are a couple of different personnel packages” the Chiefs could use at safety.Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY SportsThe packages to which Reid alluded could include Chiefs veteran Eric Murray — whom our own Matt Lane profiled in June as a player to watch this season.Or they could include the just-acquired Jordan Lucas, a 2016 sixth-rounder who came to the Chiefs from the Miami Dolphins in last weekend’s flurry of activity.In Kent Swanson’s initial film review, he noted that Lucas has the versatility the Chiefs like to see in their safeties.Incidentally... this is why — as Craig Stout pointed out in the earlier-referenced article from yesterday — the Chiefs didn’t go after some the big-name safeties that have appeared in recent months.Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY SportsThat brings us to the other safety: Armani Watts.Proclaimed as one of the draft’s clutch players Tyrann Mathieu Jersey , the fourth-round pick from Texas A&M got a lot of snaps in the preseason — and shined in the final game against the Green Bay Packers, snagging two interceptions.In Kent Swanson’s May film review, he noted that Watts — while unquestionably possessing the instincts that made him a popular pick in the draft — didn’t come out of college with the skills to tackle consistently in space.This would suggest that Watts might not yet have the versatility the Chiefs will want to see in him.Still... Watts could be learning fast.Bringing all of this together, you could argue that should Eric Berry be unavailable, Murray has the inside track to start alongside Ron Parker, while Lucas and Watts become situational and special teams players — at least for now.But let’s be clear: what we want to see is a healthy Eric Berry — and Ron Parker — on the field together.Why?Because these two guys have played together in all five years of Reid and Sutton’s tenure in Kansas City, and have been the starting safeties in the last four.Lest we forget, Parker was one of the group that play-by-play man Mitch Holthus dubbed The Magnificent Seven — the seven players the Chiefs picked up on waivers immediately after the 2013 cutdown.Parker spoke of his relationship with Berry on Wednesday.“When I’m playing with Eric, I don’t have to say anything. We can just make eye contact and know what the other guy is doing. With other guys, we have to communicate more, because we haven’t spent as much time on the field together as Eric and I did. But everything’s coming together. It’s just like riding a bike.“Eric has been happy to have me back in the building,” he said. “It’s been nothing but love -- from me to him, and him to me.”Jeff Curry-USA TODAY SportsAfter Parker’s release during the offseason, it was natural for Chiefs fans to suggest that Parker’s release had more to do with a dropoff in his ability than his cost against the cap.That’s how fans tend to rationalize these kind of moves — and that’s OK.But the speed with which the Chiefs moved to put Parker back on the roster suggested that for the Chiefs, Parker’s release was a more of a move to get short-term cap relief.Should we believe that Parker has little value to the Chiefs unless Berry is on the field?That is a possibility — that Parker is the Tonto to Berry’s Lone Ranger.(Now that I think about it, since Berry is famously afraid of horses, perhaps that isn’t the best comparison to make.Just in case, let’s go with Parker’s Robin to Berry’s Batman).But we shouldn’t count out Parker’s leadership role on the field — especially if turns out that in a particular game, Berry can’t be on it.On his first day back, the other players were asking him about the defense.“From the time I walked in, the guys have been asking questions,” he said on Wednesday. “It seems like they’re trying to figure it out. And there’s no time to wait. It’s a good thing for the young guys to be hungry, and want to go out and get it.”Parker was clearly excited to be back with the Chiefs — in no small part because he loves playing in Sutton’s defense.“Bob has so many different jobs and so many different things players in the secondary can do. Being interchangeable, and being able to move around so I can have flexibility in the defense makes it fun for me. I don’t have to sit in one spot. I can be anywhere at any time. That’s the good thing about playing in this defense.”