ERST LESEN! » of public money often causes sports

TRONDHEIM, Norway -- A superb solo goal by Dani Carvajal just before the end of extra time gave Real Madrid a 3-2 victory over 10-man Spanish rival Sevilla in the UEFA Super Cup on Tuesday.Madrid, the Champions League winners in May, took the lead in the 21st minute through Marco Asensio against a Sevilla side that lifted the Europa League trophy for a third straight time last season.Sevilla hit back with an equalizer from Franco Vazquez and a second half penalty from Yevhen Konoplyanka that looked to have sealed Europes pre-season showcase match.But captain Sergio Ramos leveled for Madrid in the third minute of stoppage time and Sevilla defender Timothee Kolodziejczak was sent off at the start of extra time, before Carvajal went on a run from the halfway line to score the winner in the 119th minute.The essence of Real Madrid is that we never give up, Carvajal said. A goal after the 90th minute and another one at the end of the added period make us champions.While Zinedine Zidane became the fifth coach to win the trophy also as a player, his milestone spoiled the competitive debut of counterpart Jorge Sampaoli at his new club.A new-look Sevilla side that has lost Kevin Gameiro, Gregorz Krychowiak and Ever Banega during the offseason fell to the Champions League winner for the third straight season. In a cup match that has been dominated by Spanish sides in recent years, Madrid beat Sevilla 2-0 two years ago before Barcelona also needed added time to prevail 5-4 last year.Its unbelievable that the match got away from us, Sevilla defender Nico Pareja said. We deserved to win. We played better and in one detail it slipped away.With star forward Cristiano Ronaldo injured, Gareth Bale not in the squad, and Karim Benzema only fit to play the last half hour, Madrid had to turn to a pair of defenders and a youngster making his first appearance in European competition for its goals.Helping to fill in for a Madrid side that was also missing Toni Kroos from midfield, 20-year-old Asensio staked his claim to a spot with Zidanes team with an exquisite left-foot shot from outside the area that dipped just in time to squeeze inside the woodwork.Sevilla, however, held firm and responded through Vazquez, who slotted the ball inside the far post when it fell to him in the area four minutes before halftime.The stalemate lasted until Victor Vitolo Machin was brought down by Ramos inside the box in the 72nd minute, allowing Konoplyanka to roll his spot kick into the corner while goalkeeper Kiko Casilla went the wrong way.Sevilla appeared to have the elusive trophy in hand until Ramos came through in heroic fashion, similar to his headed goal that sent the 2014 Champions League final into extra time before Madrid beat Atletico Madrid 4-1.The Spain centerback made up for conceding the penalty by joining the fray in front of the goalmouth, where he nodded home Lucas Vazquezs cross with seconds remaining in stoppage time.I was lucky enough to level the match, but the team showed it can rise above any injuries, and our young players really gave it their all, Ramos said. 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Lucic scored on a power play at 15:46 of the third period, when he tipped a shot over Stars goalie Kari Lehtonen for a 3-1 lead. Anyone familiar with Sports Insights knows we advocate a contrarian approach to sports betting. Like contrarian investing, this strategy is characterized by placing funds behind unpopular stocks (or teams) in contrast to prevailing opinions. A contrarian believes mob psychology -- which is largely comprised of casual weekend warrior bettors -- can lead to exploitable mispricing.Within the framework of the sports betting marketplace, most bettors can be categorized as either sharps or squares. Sharps, who are alternatively referred to as wise guys or betting syndicates, spread large bets across multiple sportsbooks. Widely respected, sharps are a smaller group that moves lines across the marketplace. They are not necessarily defined by the size of their wager, but rather by their winning track record and consistent ability to get the best of the number.The majority of bettors can be categorized as squares, who casually place wagers based on gut feelings and instinct, rather than data analytics and model building. Squares love winning teams and high-scoring gaames, and therefore tend to pound favorites and overs.dddddddddddd This has historically created a slight edge in betting on underdogs and unders.Widespread pessimism about a team can lead to one-sided betting. This influx of public money often causes sportsbooks to mitigate their risk by adjusting the line, and forcing casual bettors to take a bad number on the popular side of the game. Although theyre not necessarily looking to balance their books, oddsmakers excel at accounting for public money, and often shade their opening line to account for known biases.Using a contrarian philosophy, many strategies can be used to extract value each week. Betting against the public is one cornerstone, but there are additional ways bettors can use public betting information in conjunction with historically profitable trends. Using our historical college football database, I have identified three ways that bettors can win during bowl season. ' ' '